Andaazaअंदाज़ा

/ən·daː·zaː/noun · Hindi, Urduاندازہan estimate, a guess, a rough calculation.

Watch the world change its mind.

Reading the markets…

Currents

Moves of four points or more in a day, on prices traders agree on

How this works
  1. The water level. A market's price is what traders pay for "yes", so it reads as the chance they give it. Andaaza draws it as water: the higher the water, the surer the money. The dashed mark is where it stood a day ago.
  2. Read. The four hundred busiest questions on Polymarket plus the busiest in each of your subjects' own Polymarket tags (F1, football, AI and so on, so a race or a model ranking turns up even when it is not big worldwide), every open event on Kalshi, and Manifold's busiest play-money questions. The last reading is saved and shown at once, so the page opens in a moment; a new reading is taken in the background every fifteen minutes or so, and the page picks it up by itself at the time shown at the top.
  3. Clear the noise. Questions that are all but settled (above 98.5% or below 1.5%, or 95% on a question past the date it was due to be settled, like a race that has finished), markets with under $2,000 traded in a day ($500 for F1 and NBA, which have fewer markets), side bets (tosses, sets, handicaps, pole, podium, fastest lap) and price ladders go. So do your standing exclusions: US domestic politics, the Fed, American football, baseball, hockey and college sport, weather, and post or view counts.
  4. Sort. Each question goes to the first of your subjects whose words it contains: Formula 1, football, cricket, tennis, NBA, AI and tech, money, India, world, Bollywood and film, series and streaming, celebrities. A single match never takes a card: it goes under its sport's Coming up when it starts within a week and involves someone you follow or a team or player the subject counts as notable. When a recurring question is settled (the best AI model at the end of September), the next round (end of October) takes its place.
  5. Merge. The same question on two sites becomes one card, the busier site leading and the other shown beside it.
  6. Rank. Within a subject, anything about the Warriors, Real Madrid, Verstappen, Alcaraz, Djokovic or India comes first, then the rest by money traded today. The tide board is the busiest question in each area. Currents are the real-money questions in your subjects that moved four points or more in a day on a price the market agrees on (a spread of four points or less between buyers and sellers); weekly and monthly rankings, which reset each round, are left out. Miscellaneous is the busiest of everything that fits nowhere else.

A price is what traders pay for "yes", read as the chance they give it: the water level. The dashed line is where it stood a day ago. Polymarket and Kalshi are real money; Manifold is play money and says so.